Port Adelaide is a sleeping giant this September.

With so much attention focused on the league leaders Swans and chaos at both Hawthorn and Western Bulldogs could because going into the finals, Ken Hinkley’s Power team were overlooked by many as a championship contender, let alone favourite.

Perhaps it’s their results in finals under Hinkley, or perhaps they’ve simply lost their good form.

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They currently own the league’s longest winning streak (six matches) and are the team in the best form of the top four – only Hawthorn and GWS are in contention in the bigger picture.

Their latest achievement was their victory over Fremantle in Round 24, which secured their place at the top of the table, I can’t be underestimated.

What they did three hours from home, against a Dockers side who were literally fighting to stay in the game, was truly impressive and should give them confidence in September.

To be clear, Port are still a long way from the traditional ideal AFL product – but who isn’t this season? And does that – combined with their recent finals appearance – ironically make them the best bet to get to the end?

Similarly, we felt Port had a chance of winning the championship in recent seasons, but how does their current ‘Top Four’ profile compare to previous finals series?

Simply put, the ‘four key’ elements encompass the four most important elements to success in the Premier League: ball movement, defending movement, clearances and the differential of possession after clearances.

Clubs that finish well in these statistics have historically had the best chance of reaching the finals – and as for the Power, in previous seasons, for better or worse, they have been consistent but not at the top.

2024 Core Four Profile Ranking: 6.

– With football: 4.

– Without football: 7.

– Clearance: 3.

– After the briefing: 16.

2023 Core Four Profile Rating: 7.

– With football: 3.

– Without football: 9.

– Clearance: 3.

– After the briefing: 15.

Core Four Profile 2021 Rating: 6th Place (out of 8 finalists)

— With football: 15.

— Without football: 6.

— Clearance: 7.

— After the briefing: 5.

On paper, their overall position among the competing finalists is essentially unchanged from 2021 – but whether that will matter much this season, given its proximity, remains to be seen.

Their work in keeping the ball in possession is particularly worrying when compared to the rest of their opponents, and it’s something they’ll certainly need to improve on ahead of the first leg on Thursday night.

Sure, Powers has reached the finals before and has come very close to a grand finale in recent years – but what’s different this time around, especially when important metrics like the “four essentials” haven’t changed?

Recent mishaps in September

There is a context for why this September is as important as ever for Port Adelaide and in particular for Ken Hinkley.

This finals series brings to a close his 12th season as manager and will be Port’s seventh appearance in September since Hinkley took over in 2013.

In the past six seasons, he has twice come close to taking the black, white and turquoise team to the grand final, the first time this has happened since Port’s memorable win over Geelong in 2007.

Losing by three points to eventual leaders Hawthorn in the final 10 years ago still stings deeply for Port fans.

And the one-goal home defeat to Richmond in 2020 stings just as much, especially given the Power’s lower-league championship run and a run of 10 wins in 11 matches prior to that clash.

They were also one win away from a major tournament in 2021 but were crushed by 71 points by the Western Bulldogs, with Bailey Smith and Jack Macrae running wild.

They have made 12 finals in 11 seasons and their win-loss record currently stands at five wins and seven losses.

Although they haven’t appeared in the finals as regularly as Brisbane over the last six years, To have done put themselves in a perfect position to defeat the other seven contenders for victory.

WHAT DOES THEIR ENGINE ROOM LOOK LIKE?

While their midfield isn’t exactly a standout, it’s certainly on par with the best in this year’s finals – namely the Sydney Swans (Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner and Errol Gulden) and the Western Bulldogs (Marcus Bontempelli, Adam Treloar and Tom Liberatore).

Having Connor Rozee, Zak Butters and Jason Horne-Francis in midfield is one thing, but would there be room for Ollie Wines, Travis Boak and Willem Drew in the second rotation?

This is a whole new level of luxury.

The AFL Player Rankings have Butters (2nd), Rozee (45th), Drew (73rd), Horne-Francis (88th) and Ollie Wines (92nd) in the top 100 players in the competition. The only non-roster player who plays at midfield is the suspended Dan Houston (25th).

Additionally, Butters, Horne-Francis and Wines are all in the top 25 for penalty clearances this season, something that has undoubtedly been keeping Cats coach Chris Scott awake at night over the past fortnight.

The experience of Boak – the only player remaining in the team from Port Adelaide’s last grand final win in 2007 – and Wines in the engine room cannot be overstated in September, when the younger centre-backs will get their fourth crack at the game since the start of the decade.

The same level of finals understanding cannot be said for Port’s Jordan Sweet, who is set to play his first top-level final – but overall he has had a pretty solid first season under Ken Hinkley after arriving from Whitten Oval.

In short, the Power core are ready to fire on all cylinders and looking ahead to the near future, they look very favourable against Geelong on Thursday night.

The first major challenge for the team will be to defeat Patrick Dangerfield, who will have to defeat the star of this final series. However, if they manage to do so, it will have a big impact on winning Port, not only the match, but also give them the confidence that they can beat other stars in the final.

WHAT ABOUT THEIR EXTENSION LINE?

The Power have made changes to their offensive line for the 2024 season, including making the important decision not to field a healthy Todd Marshall in Week 1 of the Finals.

For now, Mitch Georgiades and Charlie Dixon remain the two key tall players in attack, with Esava Ratugolea also on standby to provide support if he is not recalled.

Only Georgiades has scored more than 30 goals this season (39), while five others have scored between 20 and 29.

So unlike Carlton with Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay, or GWS with Jesse Hogan and Toby Greene, their goals came from a very evenly spread group, with no clear leader.

And while Dixon may not be scoring as many goals as he once did, his presence in the air allows Port’s smaller forward to get down to work quickly, and their ever-expanding fleet of Mosquitoes is gaining momentum by the week.

Willie Rioli has been there, done that, and done it on the big stage in West Coast’s premiership year in 2018 – and leads the likes of Darcy Byrne-Jones, Jed McEntee, Quinton Narkle and Francis Evans on the pitch.

The Power have played a side this year that has featured four tall players inside the 50 at times, so on paper the forward line looks much shorter and certainly different to what it was at the start of the season – especially with Sam Powell-Pepper (ACL) out since Round 7.

But it has certainly worked in recent weeks without Marshall and Jeremy Finlayson up front – and with Narkle joining the squad this week, it is pretty clear that is the way forward for Hinkley in this finals series.

If all goes to plan for Port, the aerial play of their taller players, the skill of their smaller strikers and the pressure from their forwards will present a tough challenge for any team to face in September; let alone at home.

Their offensive balance is far different than most of the defenses they could face in September, giving them the potential to become an offensive X-factor that few others can replicate by the end of the season.

AND A WORD IN THEIR DEFENSE?

That’s likely their weakness heading into this finals series, given the suspension of Dan Houston and the injury to winger/guard Kane Farrell, which will limit their team’s rebounding and rebounding of the ball from the attacking link to some extent.

That said, it is also a great opportunity for the likes of Jase Burgoyne and Logan Evans to show what they are capable of on the big stage, with both youngsters showing very promising flashes of their best in the second half of the season, both home and away.

Talls Aliir Aliir and Brandon Zerk-Thatcher have not been at their best in 2024, while Lachie Jones and Ryan Burton have featured in the squad throughout the year.

Defensive midfield play will be key to optimising Port’s chances of winning the title this season, given their weaknesses, but like any club, you don’t have to be perfect to win the title, especially in a year like the one we had in 2024.

So what does their path to glory look like?

Part of the reason the Powers look so attractive in this finals series also has to do with their side of the bracket in September.

And a win on Thursday night would give them a huge advantage world good.

If they beat the Cats, they will set up a finals match against any team from Sydney, GWS, Brisbane or Carlton – all of which they will, for different reasons, fancy their chances against.

Additionally, this rules out any chance of a match with Hawthorn or Western Bulldogs until the last Saturday in September.

For these reasons alone, it’s hard not to look at the bigger picture and notice that Port, thanks to their victory over Geelong, have the best chance of advancing to this year’s grand final.

That said – loss to the Cats in the qualifying final changes everything, and that’s what makes the view of “league favourites” so fickle.

Defeat on Thursday night would mean another home final against one of the formidable Western Bulldogs or Hawthorn, followed by an away qualifying final (if they get that far) against Sydney or GWS.

Far from ideal when the match is played away from home.

Advancing to the grand finals isn’t out of reach after losing in the first week of the finals, but it certainly makes things a lot harder.

A win over Geelong and they have one foot in the grand final; defeat, however, would spell a far greater disaster for Ken Hinkley than if they had not lost.