September Crystal Ball, Premieres, Brownlow, Norm Smith and More
9 mins read

September Crystal Ball, Premieres, Brownlow, Norm Smith and More

The finals are just around the corner!

Eleven days into the craziest, most tumultuous season we’ve ever had, the competition is on between the top eight teams in the league who can still win the championship.

I can’t think of many first-week finals that have been more eagerly anticipated than this one: with two truly blockbuster elimination finals – the Bulldogs-Hawthorn clash looks set to be an absolute epic – plus the Sydney Derby, plus finals in four of the five mainland states, this September promises to be a nationwide festival of football and a huge step up from last season, when six of the nine finals were held at the MCG.

As has been the case all season,

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Tim Miller

Prime minister: GWS

Runner-up: Adelaide Harbour

The greatest story: Analysis of ARC’s performance at a crucial time will have everyone clamouring for a piece of the Sherrins’ AFLW roster.

Brownlow Medal: Lachie Neale – better this year than last, tends to vote in average matches.

Norm Smith Medal: Brent Daniels, son of Brent Daniels.

It will definitely happen: The Brownlow Medal is awarded to those who take part in the final match hosted by Andrew Dillon – and the counting will be even tighter than last year.

Definitely not going to happen: Bulldogs win another championship from seventh place – I don’t care what Champion Data says about them being the best team in the league.

Who wins the first week of finals:

Port Adelaide: I totally get why no one believes in the Power before September, but I have a feeling they could be this year’s Brisbane: a top-two team with an average finals history who find a way to do it on home turf in September. A Geelong team with a malleable midfield against Zak Butters, Connor Rozee and Jason Horne-Francis looks like the perfect line-up for Ken Hinkley to start defying a few doubters.

Western Bulldogs: You have to bet on your own team, right? The most hyped elimination final in years is definitely the game I found hardest to predict – but the Dogs’ midfielders are in great form, and I wonder if five easy kills in their last six games with minimal resistance will be a problem for the Hawks if this match is, as expected, a close one.

GWS: The Giants are the worst opponent the Swans could draw in this match, despite winning both their home and away Sydney derbies. They are not the devastating team they were in those matches, and with the Giants in form – apart from a near-dead draw with the Bulldogs, where a win would have been worse than a loss – GWS should have won 4-0 against their city rivals in the final

Brisbane: On paper, the easiest match of the round to bet on – but I’m betting it won’t be the biggest loss. The Blues go to the Gabba with nothing to lose because their stars are back – meanwhile, the Lions don’t usually cope well with the weight of expectations. They should win, but if you’re a Brisbane fan, prepare for a solid upset.

Hawks' James Sicily and Bulldogs' Marcus Bontempelli battle it out.

James Sicily and Marcus Bontempelli wrestle. (Photo: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

The Panopoulos

Prime minister: Sydney

Runner-up: GWS

The greatest story: Toby Greene has some trouble with MRO after winning the preliminary stage.

Brownlow Medal: Nick Daicos.

Norm Smith Medal: Isaac Heeney.

It will definitely happen: New South Wales Premier Chris Minns asks why there can’t be a grand final on the rugby pitch featuring only NSW players.

Definitely won’t happen: Please visit the comments section after each match result in Brisbane.

Who wins the first week of finals:

Port Adelaide: Not selecting Tom Hawkins could really affect the functionality of Geelong’s forward line, and they don’t have a great record in SA in finals. I’ve long thought the Power wouldn’t win a final this year, but this is their best chance of qualifying. Port kicks ass.

Western Bulldogs: I discussed the difficulty of this Hawks matchup last week, but it’s raining. Still, the absence of Will Day makes Bont difficult to discuss. The Hawks did everything we thought they could do and more, but this could be the end of the road in 2024.

Sydney: The Swans just need to win this game… and not have a slow first quarter. I think the Giants are being looked at through rose-tinted glasses and may get a reality check in their first final before they get back on their feet come September.

Brisbane: As one man once said, “say his name and he will appear”. Well, I believe in Sam Docherty. It’s extraordinary, this comeback, and it will be the biggest spur for the Blues. They are up against the odds and Brisbane have no choice but to win this game, for many reasons. I’m backing the Lions – they should do it without a problem if they are serious – but I’m not convinced they will.

Conor McKenna celebrates a goal.

Conor McKenna celebrates a goal. (Photo: Russell Freeman/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Cameron Rose

Prime minister: GWS

Runner-up: Brisbane

The greatest story: Port suffocates in another home preliminary final.

Brownlow Medal: Let’s hope Marcus Bontempelli’s time has come, although bookmakers are predicting a two-horse race: Patrick Cripps and Nick Daicos.

Norm Smith Medal: Kieran Briggs.

It will definitely happen: Referees getting too involved at the end of a close match.

This will definitely not happen: Geelong wins the premiership.

Who wins the first week of finals:

Port Adelaide: I’m reluctant to go with Port, just because I don’t rate Geelong. They’re two of the worst top-four teams we’ve ever seen.

Western Bulldogs: I trust the Dogs team given their added finals experience and Marcus Bontempelli’s ability to control the game.

GWS: I’ve been in Sydney all year but I’m coming out at a crucial time. I don’t think they’ll be able to recapture their early season form.

Brisbane: We have to bet on Brisbane at home instead of the ineffective Carlton

Zak Butters (born 1962)

Zak Butters. (Photo: James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Liam Salter

Prime minister: Sydney

Runner-up: Adelaide Harbour

The greatest story: To bore everyone, Sydney have no major problems on their way to the championship, despite the Port final banner reminding them of *that* 112-point defeat this season.

Brownlow Medal: Nick Daicos.

Norm Smith Medal: Errol Gulden.

It will definitely happen: The media focus will be on Luke Beveridge and Chris Fagan (after their elimination and pre-final losses respectively) before they meet up again with Ken Hinkley at around 5pm on 28th September.

Definitely not going to happen: Rational discussion of the referee’s decision. Everyone judge’s decision. Especially at the end of the game.

Who wins the first week of finals:

Port Adelaide: Living in Adelaide, it’s hard not to be caught up in the atmosphere of anxiety but also excitement that Port have in the final. From a coach under siege to a real threat to the Premier League, with their fans behind them, they will beat the Cats to secure a crucial home preliminary final.

Hawthorn: This should be a crazy good game – and it’s a real shame that one of these teams has to lose. The Doggies are always dangerous, but the Hawks are this year’s feel-good story – and honestly, don’t worry, I’m on board. Sorry Dogs fans – and Tim.

Sydney: Another ridiculously difficult match to pick. History doesn’t help – GWS are 3-0 in this finals match, but Swans have won both their H&A matches this year. Giants should go deep into the finals, but the first minors (and my favourite to win the title) will have the last laugh this weekend.

James Rowbottom

James Rowbottom. (Photo: Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Brisbane: The Blues will get back a lot of great players. Sam Docherty’s return is bloody amazing and they’ve (at times) proven to be a force. But I’m still not as sold on them as I was before This Goal by Jack Higgins. Brissy, but probably within one or two goals.

Finals Week 1 Tim They Cam Liam Crowd
PA vs GEE ANNUALLY ANNUALLY ANNUALLY ANNUALLY ?
WB vs HAW WB WB WB HAWTHORN ?
SYD vs GWS GWS Sydney GWS Sydney ?
BL vs CARL BL BL BL BL ?
LAST WEEK 6 7 8 7 8
ROLLING SUM 123 132 128 120 129